Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ryan LaFlare won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1368

Ryan LaFlarevsAlex GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Ryan LaFlare won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRyan LaFlare: WrestlervsAlex Garcia: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ryan LaFlare wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Ryan LaFlare wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan LaFlare at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Ryan LaFlare (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ryan LaFlare

Red Corner

Alex Garcia

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1491

Elo

1368

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan LaFlareL2 streak

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Mar 15

vs Mike Pierce · Dec 15

vs Roan Carneiro · Feb 17

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Jul 17

KOvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 18

latest

Alex Garcia

oldest →

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 16

KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 16

vs Tim Means · Jun 17

SUBvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 17

vs Court McGee · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan LaFlareMetricAlex Garcia

2.89

Strikes / min

1.81

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

63%

Strike defense

59%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

3.72

58%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 2.25 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan LaFlareAlex Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan LaFlare(10 fights)Alex Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.9|Blue -122.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan LaFlareTargetAlex Garcia

By target zone

19% acc · 21%

Head

13% acc · 55%

89% acc · 71%

Body

57% acc · 36%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

45% acc · 71%

Distance

15% acc · 64%

50% acc · 13%

Clinch

43% acc · 27%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan LaFlare rounds

even

Alex Garcia rounds

Round 1Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:45

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:39

2Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 3Alex Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:02

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:37Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 48

Sig Strikes

11 / 54

52.3%

Sig Str %

28%

47 / 71

Total Strikes

21 / 66

1 / 6

TDs

5 / 7

33.3%

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:26

Ctrl Time

4:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Garcia	6 / 29	6 / 30	0 / 1
1	Ryan LaFlare	11 / 24	11 / 24	0 / 4
2	Alex Garcia	2 / 4	11 / 14	3 / 3
2	Ryan LaFlare	3 / 5	24 / 26	1 / 1
3	Alex Garcia	3 / 21	4 / 22	2 / 3
3	Ryan LaFlare	10 / 19	12 / 21	0 / 1

Ryan LaFlare

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Alex Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10