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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ilia Topuria won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1520

Ryan HallvsIlia TopuriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Saturday, July 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ilia Topuria won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:47

Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(86.1%)

Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ilia Topuria at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Hall enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ilia Topuria has 93pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan Hall (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Hall

Red Corner

Ilia Topuria

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1494

Elo

1520

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan HallW5 streak

oldest →

vs Artem Lobov · Dec 15

vs Gray Maynard · Dec 16

SUBvs BJ Penn · Dec 18

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 19

vs Darrick Minner · Dec 21

latest

Ilia Topuria

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24

KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan HallMetricIlia Topuria

2.38

Strikes / min

4.81

1.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

65%

Strike defense

64%

0.22

TDs / 15 min

1.96

Takedown defense

93%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan HallIlia Topuria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Hall(6 fights)Ilia Topuria(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.3|Blue +25.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +511.0|Blue -511.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan HallTargetIlia Topuria

By target zone

29% acc · 20%

Head

46% acc · 61%

80% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 11%

80% acc · 40%

Leg

83% acc · 28%

By position

56% acc · 90%

Distance

38% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

63% acc · 83%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Hall rounds

even

Ilia Topuria rounds

Round 1Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 17

Sig Strikes

18 / 32

58%

Sig Str %

56%

13 / 21

Total Strikes

18 / 32

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ilia Topuria	18 / 32	18 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Ryan Hall	10 / 17	13 / 21	0 / 3	0

Ryan Hall

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9