Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Hall won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1440

Ryan HallvsDarrick MinnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Hall won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Darrick Minner wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Ryan Hall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darrick Minner at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Hall has 30pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Darrick Minner has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan Hall (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Hall

Red Corner

Darrick Minner

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1494

Elo

1440

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan Hall

oldest →

vs Artem Lobov · Dec 15

vs Gray Maynard · Dec 16

SUBvs BJ Penn · Dec 18

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 19

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jul 21

latest

Darrick MinnerL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Grant Dawson · Feb 20

SUBvs TJ Laramie · Sep 20

vs Charles Rosa · Feb 21

KOvs Darren Elkins · Jul 21

KOvs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan HallMetricDarrick Minner

2.38

Strikes / min

2.63

1.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.28

65%

Strike defense

35%

0.22

TDs / 15 min

2.40

Takedown defense

66%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan HallDarrick Minner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Hall(6 fights)Darrick Minner(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.8|Blue -54.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan HallTargetDarrick Minner

By target zone

71% acc · 55%

Head

48% acc · 62%

100% acc · 45%

Body

86% acc · 23%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

58% acc · 18%

Distance

55% acc · 65%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

89% acc · 80%

Ground

55% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Hall rounds

even

Darrick Minner rounds

Round 1Darrick Minner edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:40

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Ryan Hall edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:14

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:37Control

Round 3Ryan Hall edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control3:43

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 49

Sig Strikes

26 / 45

79%

Sig Str %

63%

163 / 180

Total Strikes

56 / 78

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:37

Ctrl Time

4:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darrick Minner	15 / 28	20 / 33	1 / 1	0
1	Ryan Hall	5 / 7	33 / 39	0 / 1	2
2	Darrick Minner	8 / 13	14 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Ryan Hall	17 / 20	73 / 79	0 / 1	2
3	Darrick Minner	3 / 4	22 / 23	0 / 0	0
3	Ryan Hall	18 / 22	57 / 62	0 / 0	3

Ryan Hall

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Darrick Minner

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6