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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Gandra won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1548

Elo1475

Ryan GandravsZach ReeseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Gandra won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:15

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Ryan Gandra

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Ryan Gandra at -135 American odds · hypothetical only

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Style matchupRyan Gandra: Elusive strikervsZach Reese: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Zach Reese wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Ryan Gandra wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Gandra is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Zach Reese has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ryan Gandra has 38pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ryan Gandra has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Gandra

Red Corner

Zach Reese

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+114

(47%)

1548

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'4"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan Gandra

oldest →

KOvs Jose Daniel Medina · Feb 26

latest

Zach Reese

oldest →

KOvs Azamat Bekoev · Jan 25

vs Dusko Todorovic · May 25

vs Sedriques Dumas · Sep 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Nov 25

vs Michel Pereira · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan GandraMetricZach Reese

13.02

Strikes / min

4.48

1.70

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

81%

Strike defense

43%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.80

100%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+11.32Δ 10.76 — meaningful gap+0.56

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Gandra(2 fights)Zach Reese(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +73.1|Blue -73.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan GandraTargetZach Reese

By target zone

50% acc · 80%

Head

38% acc · 60%

50% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

38% acc · 50%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

71% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Gandra rounds

even

Zach Reese rounds

Round 1Ryan Gandra edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 20

Sig Strikes

5 / 10

50%

Sig Str %

50%

10 / 20

Total Strikes

5 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zach Reese	5 / 10	5 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Ryan Gandra	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Ryan Gandra

Odds

-135

Market-implied probability

Ryan Gandra 55%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Ryan Gandra (model pick · research)$174

Zach Reese$214

55% market-implied · model 55% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at -135 · never rewritten

Ryan Gandra

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2

Zach Reese

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6