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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Gandra won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1548
Ryan Gandra editorial illustration
Elo1428
Jose Daniel Medina

Ryan GandravsJose Daniel MedinaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Ryan Gandra won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:41

Model Prediction: Ryan Gandra wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Ryan Gandra wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Gandra at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jose Daniel Medina enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Ryan Gandra is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jose Daniel Medina has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Ryan Gandra has 35pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ryan Gandra has 73pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Gandra
Red Corner
VS
Jose Daniel Medina
Blue Corner
-720
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+520
(16%)
1548
Elo
1428
31
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan Gandra
oldest →
W
KOvs Zach Reese · Jul 26
latest
Jose Daniel MedinaL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Zachary Reese · Aug 24
L
KOvs Ateba Gautier · Mar 25
L
SUBvs Dusko Todorovic · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan GandraMetricJose Daniel Medina
13.02
Strikes / min
2.13
1.70
Strikes absorbed / min
5.34
81%
Strike defense
46%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.39
100%
Takedown defense
27%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+11.32Δ 14.53 — meaningful gap-3.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1444Strikes13.0 vs 2.1Takedowns0.0 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Ryan GandraJose Daniel Medina

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14101448148515231560← oldermost recent →
Ryan Gandra(2 fights)Jose Daniel Medina(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +120.4|Blue -120.4
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Grappler Score
Red +49.9|Blue -49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan GandraTargetJose Daniel Medina

By target zone

14
52% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

13
46% acc · 93%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 7%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ryan Gandra rounds
0
even
0
Jose Daniel Medina rounds
Round 1Ryan Gandra edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
14 / 29
Sig Strikes
0 / 3
48%
Sig Str %
0%
14 / 29
Total Strikes
0 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jose Daniel Medina0 / 30 / 30 / 00
1Ryan Gandra14 / 2914 / 290 / 00

Ryan Gandra

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2

Jose Daniel Medina

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4