Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Benoit won · S-DEC R3

Elo1405

Elo1359

Ryan BenoitvsFredy SerranoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Benoit won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRyan Benoit: Well-roundedvsFredy Serrano: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ryan Benoit wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Ryan Benoit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Benoit at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Benoit enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Benoit

Red Corner

Fredy Serrano

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1405

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'3"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan BenoitL3 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Dec 16

KOvs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Nov 17

vs Heili Alateng · Dec 19

vs Tim Elliott · Jul 20

vs Zarrukh Adashev · Jul 21

latest

Fredy Serrano

oldest →

KOvs Bentley Syler · Mar 15

KOvs Yao Zhikui · Nov 15

vs Hector Sandoval · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BenoitMetricFredy Serrano

2.88

Strikes / min

1.58

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

1.89

58%

Strike defense

61%

0.28

TDs / 15 min

2.84

72%

Takedown defense

84%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.77evenly matched on net striking-0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan BenoitFredy Serrano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Benoit(9 fights)Fredy Serrano(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.1|Blue -46.1

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan BenoitTargetFredy Serrano

By target zone

39% acc · 48%

Head

28% acc · 64%

89% acc · 26%

Body

100% acc · 36%

73% acc · 26%

Leg

0% acc

By position

53% acc · 68%

Distance

35% acc · 82%

67% acc · 26%

Clinch

33% acc · 9%

33% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Benoit rounds

even

Fredy Serrano rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:27

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:17Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Fredy Serrano edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 3Ryan Benoit edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:58

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 58

Sig Strikes

22 / 60

51.7%

Sig Str %

32.7%

45 / 76

Total Strikes

67 / 116

0 / 1

TDs

5 / 14

TD %

39.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

4:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Fredy Serrano	12 / 28	16 / 32	2 / 3
1	Ryan Benoit	11 / 21	13 / 23	0 / 1
2	Fredy Serrano	8 / 20	30 / 49	2 / 6
2	Ryan Benoit	6 / 15	11 / 22	0 / 0
3	Fredy Serrano	2 / 12	21 / 35	1 / 5
3	Ryan Benoit	14 / 22	21 / 31	0 / 0

Ryan Benoit

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9

Fredy Serrano

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4