Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Benoit won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1405

Elo1363

Ryan BenoitvsAshkan MokhtarianUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Ryan Benoit won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:38

Model Prediction: Ryan Benoit wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Ryan Benoit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Benoit at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Benoit enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ryan Benoit is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Ashkan Mokhtarian has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ryan Benoit has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ryan Benoit has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ashkan Mokhtarian (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Benoit

Red Corner

Ashkan Mokhtarian

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1405

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan BenoitL4 streak

oldest →

vs Fredy Serrano · Jul 16

vs Brandon Moreno · Dec 16

vs Heili Alateng · Dec 19

vs Tim Elliott · Jul 20

vs Zarrukh Adashev · Jul 21

latest

Ashkan Mokhtarian

oldest →

vs John Moraga · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BenoitMetricAshkan Mokhtarian

2.88

Strikes / min

1.95

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

58%

Strike defense

43%

0.28

TDs / 15 min

0.54

72%

Takedown defense

33%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.77evenly matched on net striking-1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan BenoitAshkan Mokhtarian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Benoit(9 fights)Ashkan Mokhtarian(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.2|Blue -42.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan BenoitTargetAshkan Mokhtarian

By target zone

47% acc · 89%

Head

28% acc · 48%

67% acc · 9%

Body

61% acc · 26%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

92% acc · 26%

By position

46% acc · 89%

Distance

41% acc · 98%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Benoit rounds

even

Ashkan Mokhtarian rounds

Round 1Ashkan Mokhtarian edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ryan Benoit edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 93

Sig Strikes

42 / 101

48%

Sig Str %

42%

47 / 95

Total Strikes

43 / 102

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ashkan Mokhtarian	14 / 29	15 / 30	0 / 2
1	Ryan Benoit	11 / 25	11 / 25	0 / 0
2	Ashkan Mokhtarian	20 / 52	20 / 52	0 / 1
2	Ryan Benoit	21 / 42	22 / 43	0 / 1
3	Ashkan Mokhtarian	8 / 20	8 / 20	0 / 0
3	Ryan Benoit	13 / 26	14 / 27	0 / 0

Ryan Benoit

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9

Ashkan Mokhtarian

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights2