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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Bader won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Ryan Bader
Elo1352

Ryan BadervsVladimir MatyushenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:50

Style matchupRyan Bader: WrestlervsVladimir Matyushenko: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Vladimir Matyushenko wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vladimir Matyushenko at +450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vladimir Matyushenko is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
  • Ryan Bader has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Bader
Red Corner
VS
Vladimir Matyushenko
Blue Corner
-525
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
1491
Elo
1352
43
Age
55
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15
W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15
L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16
W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16
W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16
latest
Vladimir Matyushenko
oldest →
W
vs Eliot Marshall · Mar 10
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Aug 10
W
KOvs Alexandre Ferreira · Nov 10
W
KOvs Jason Brilz · Apr 11
L
KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BaderMetricVladimir Matyushenko
2.82
Strikes / min
1.90
1.39
Strikes absorbed / min
1.62
71%
Strike defense
59%
3.37
TDs / 15 min
3.25
80%
Takedown defense
70%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1515Strikes23.9 vs 17.6Takedowns2.0 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.09Form-0.2 vs -0.1
Ryan BaderVladimir Matyushenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Ryan Bader(10 fights)Vladimir Matyushenko(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.8|Blue -138.8
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -218.0|Blue +218.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan BaderTargetVladimir Matyushenko

By target zone

2
40% acc · 67%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

3
75% acc · 100%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ryan Bader rounds
0
even
0
Vladimir Matyushenko rounds
Round 1Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
3 / 6
Sig Strikes
0 / 4
50%
Sig Str %
0%
3 / 6
Total Strikes
1 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:06
Ctrl Time
0:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vladimir Matyushenko0 / 41 / 50 / 00
1Ryan Bader3 / 63 / 60 / 01

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16

Vladimir Matyushenko

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6