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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Ryan Bader won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1387

Ryan BadervsRogerio NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:51

Model Prediction: Rogerio Nogueira wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rogerio Nogueira at +280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Ryan Bader has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ryan Bader has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Bader

Red Corner

Rogerio Nogueira

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1491

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan Bader

oldest →

vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14

vs Phil Davis · Jan 15

vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15

KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16

latest

Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16

KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18

KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19

vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BaderMetricRogerio Nogueira

2.82

Strikes / min

2.43

1.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

71%

Strike defense

59%

3.37

TDs / 15 min

0.64

80%

Takedown defense

62%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan BaderRogerio Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Bader(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.9|Blue -103.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan BaderTargetRogerio Nogueira

By target zone

72% acc · 86%

Head

25% acc · 100%

89% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 10%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

85% acc · 90%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Bader rounds

even

Rogerio Nogueira rounds

Round 1Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control3:22

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control4:45

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control3:11

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 116

Sig Strikes

3 / 12

76.7%

Sig Str %

40.7%

129 / 164

Total Strikes

12 / 23

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:18

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rogerio Nogueira	2 / 9	2 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Ryan Bader	36 / 50	45 / 61	1 / 1	0
2	Rogerio Nogueira	1 / 1	4 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Ryan Bader	13 / 15	32 / 36	3 / 3	1
3	Rogerio Nogueira	0 / 2	6 / 9	0 / 0	0
3	Ryan Bader	37 / 51	52 / 67	1 / 1	0

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12