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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Bader won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1366

Ryan BadervsRashad EvansUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRyan Bader: WrestlervsRashad Evans: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rashad Evans wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rashad Evans at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rashad Evans enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Bader

Red Corner

Rashad Evans

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1491

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan BaderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14

vs Phil Davis · Jan 15

KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16

latest

Rashad EvansL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chael Sonnen · Nov 13

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BaderMetricRashad Evans

2.82

Strikes / min

2.14

1.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.42

71%

Strike defense

63%

3.37

TDs / 15 min

2.98

80%

Takedown defense

73%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan BaderRashad Evans

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Bader(10 fights)Rashad Evans(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.9|Blue -124.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -434.0|Blue +434.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan BaderTargetRashad Evans

By target zone

38% acc · 87%

Head

18% acc · 68%

60% acc · 12%

Body

46% acc · 24%

33% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

38% acc · 94%

Distance

21% acc · 92%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Bader rounds

even

Rashad Evans rounds

Round 1Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:03

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:54

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:06

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 133

Sig Strikes

25 / 111

39%

Sig Str %

22.3%

55 / 136

Total Strikes

27 / 113

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

11%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rashad Evans	11 / 36	11 / 36	0 / 1
1	Ryan Bader	18 / 45	18 / 45	0 / 1
2	Rashad Evans	8 / 42	9 / 43	0 / 1
2	Ryan Bader	11 / 46	12 / 47	1 / 3
3	Rashad Evans	6 / 33	7 / 34	0 / 1
3	Ryan Bader	23 / 42	25 / 44	0 / 2

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12