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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Bader won · Decision R3
Elo1491
Ryan Bader
Elo1356

Ryan BadervsRafael FeijaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · Saturday, June 14, 2014Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Bader at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Feijao is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Bader
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Feijao
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1491
Elo
1356
43
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15
W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15
L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16
W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16
W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16
latest
Rafael FeijaoL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Thiago Silva · Jun 13
W
KOvs Igor Pokrajac · Nov 13
L
KOvs Patrick Cummins · Aug 15
L
DECvs Ovince Saint Preux · Feb 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BaderMetricRafael Feijao
2.82
Strikes / min
—
1.39
Strikes absorbed / min
—
71%
Strike defense
—
3.37
TDs / 15 min
—
80%
Takedown defense
—
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1501Strikes24.9 vs 20.0Takedowns1.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.31 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 0.2
Ryan BaderRafael Feijao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ryan Bader(10 fights)Rafael Feijao(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +134.4|Blue -134.4
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -27.0|Blue +27.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16

Rafael Feijao

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2