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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Ryan Bader won · U-DEC R5
Elo1491
Ryan Bader
Elo1497

Ryan BadervsOvince Saint PreuxUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 16, 2014Bangor, Maine, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRyan Bader: WrestlervsOvince Saint Preux: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Bader at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ryan Bader has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ovince Saint Preux (53.5%).
  • Ovince Saint Preux has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Bader
Red Corner
VS
Ovince Saint Preux
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1491
Elo
1497
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15
W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15
L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16
W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16
W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16
latest
Ovince Saint Preux
oldest →
L
KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21
W
vs Mauricio Rua · May 22
L
KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23
W
vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24
L
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BaderMetricOvince Saint Preux
2.82
Strikes / min
3.03
1.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.33
71%
Strike defense
47%
3.37
TDs / 15 min
1.09
80%
Takedown defense
67%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1561Strikes26.9 vs 17.0Takedowns2.1 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.29 vs 0.50Form0.5 vs 1.0
Ryan BaderOvince Saint Preux

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ryan Bader(10 fights)Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -6.5|Blue +6.5
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan BaderTargetOvince Saint Preux

By target zone

18
32% acc · 75%
Head
17
23% acc · 71%
3
38% acc · 13%
Body
6
46% acc · 25%
3
43% acc · 13%
Leg
1
33% acc · 4%

By position

13
25% acc · 54%
Distance
20
24% acc · 83%
2
50% acc · 8%
Clinch
4
67% acc · 17%
9
60% acc · 38%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Ryan Bader rounds
1
even
1
Ovince Saint Preux rounds
Round 1Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control1:27
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control0:02
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 3Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns3
Control3:30
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control3:07
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Ovince Saint Preux edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control2:01
6Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
24 / 72
Sig Strikes
24 / 91
29.8%
Sig Str %
26.8%
77 / 137
Total Strikes
30 / 97
9 / 21
TDs
2 / 2
45.2%
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
10:07
Ctrl Time
1:45

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ovince Saint Preux3 / 224 / 230 / 00
1Ryan Bader7 / 1813 / 252 / 30
2Ovince Saint Preux8 / 349 / 350 / 00
2Ryan Bader6 / 236 / 231 / 40
3Ovince Saint Preux1 / 72 / 80 / 00
3Ryan Bader6 / 1729 / 433 / 40
4Ryan Bader5 / 1020 / 322 / 50
4Ovince Saint Preux6 / 146 / 140 / 00
5Ovince Saint Preux6 / 149 / 172 / 20
5Ryan Bader0 / 49 / 141 / 51

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights28