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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Bader won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Ryan Bader
Elo1351

Ryan BadervsJason BrilzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · Saturday, November 19, 2011San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:17

Style matchupRyan Bader: WrestlervsJason Brilz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jason Brilz wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Brilz at +345 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ryan Bader has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Bader
Red Corner
VS
Jason Brilz
Blue Corner
-385
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+345
(22%)
1491
Elo
1351
43
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15
W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15
L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16
W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16
W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16
latest
Jason BrilzL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Eric Schafer · Mar 10
L
vs Rogerio Nogueira · May 10
L
KOvs Vladimir Matyushenko · Apr 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BaderMetricJason Brilz
2.82
Strikes / min
2.66
1.39
Strikes absorbed / min
1.78
71%
Strike defense
65%
3.37
TDs / 15 min
2.37
80%
Takedown defense
25%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.43evenly matched on net striking+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1484Strikes24.4 vs 30.7Takedowns2.3 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.29 vs 1.00Form-0.6 vs -0.6
Ryan BaderJason Brilz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Ryan Bader(10 fights)Jason Brilz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.5|Blue -139.5
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan BaderTargetJason Brilz

By target zone

6
46% acc · 100%
Head
1
8% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
0% acc
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

6
43% acc · 100%
Distance
1
8% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ryan Bader rounds
0
even
0
Jason Brilz rounds
Round 1Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
6 / 14
Sig Strikes
1 / 13
42%
Sig Str %
7%
6 / 14
Total Strikes
1 / 13
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason Brilz1 / 131 / 130 / 00
1Ryan Bader6 / 146 / 140 / 00

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16

Jason Brilz

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4