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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Bader won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1497

Ryan BadervsIlir LatifiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · Saturday, September 3, 2016Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:06

Style matchupRyan Bader: WrestlervsIlir Latifi: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Bader at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Bader has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ilir Latifi has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Bader

Red Corner

Ilir Latifi

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1491

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan Bader

oldest →

vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14

vs Phil Davis · Jan 15

vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15

KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16

latest

Ilir Latifi

oldest →

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Aug 19

vs Derrick Lewis · Feb 20

vs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Aleksei Oleinik · Oct 22

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BaderMetricIlir Latifi

2.82

Strikes / min

2.05

1.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

71%

Strike defense

56%

3.37

TDs / 15 min

2.11

80%

Takedown defense

100%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan BaderIlir Latifi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Bader(10 fights)Ilir Latifi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.5|Blue +6.5

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan BaderTargetIlir Latifi

By target zone

39% acc · 92%

Head

26% acc · 67%

33% acc · 8%

Body

50% acc · 33%

Leg

0% acc

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

26% acc · 67%

Clinch

40% acc · 22%

Ground

50% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Bader rounds

even

Ilir Latifi rounds

Round 1Ilir Latifi edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 34

Sig Strikes

9 / 30

38.5%

Sig Str %

33.5%

15 / 36

Total Strikes

11 / 32

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ilir Latifi	5 / 21	6 / 22	0 / 4
1	Ryan Bader	9 / 24	10 / 25	0 / 0
2	Ilir Latifi	4 / 9	5 / 10	0 / 1
2	Ryan Bader	4 / 10	5 / 11	0 / 1

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Ilir Latifi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16