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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Bader won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1356

Ryan BadervsAnthony PeroshUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot · Friday, December 6, 2013Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Ryan Bader won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRyan Bader: WrestlervsAnthony Perosh: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Anthony Perosh wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Perosh at +450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Perosh threatens submissions; Ryan Bader has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Ryan Bader has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ryan Bader has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Bader

Red Corner

Anthony Perosh

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1491

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan BaderW2 streak

oldest →

vs Phil Davis · Jan 15

vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15

KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16

latest

Anthony PeroshL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan Jimmo · Jul 12

KOvs Vinny Magalhaes · Aug 13

SUBvs Guto Inocente · Nov 14

KOvs Sean O'Connell · May 15

KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan BaderMetricAnthony Perosh

2.82

Strikes / min

2.27

1.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

71%

Strike defense

53%

3.37

TDs / 15 min

2.03

80%

Takedown defense

33%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.43Δ 2.93 — meaningful gap-1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan BaderAnthony Perosh

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Bader(10 fights)Anthony Perosh(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.0|Blue -135.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -32.0|Blue +32.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan BaderTargetAnthony Perosh

By target zone

70% acc · 91%

Head

18% acc · 67%

75% acc · 9%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

39% acc · 16%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

81% acc · 79%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Bader rounds

even

Anthony Perosh rounds

Round 1Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control3:04

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control4:31

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ryan Bader edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control4:41

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 100

Sig Strikes

9 / 37

70.7%

Sig Str %

31%

156 / 188

Total Strikes

11 / 39

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

12:16

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anthony Perosh	5 / 27	5 / 27	0 / 1
1	Ryan Bader	22 / 39	45 / 62	1 / 1
2	Anthony Perosh	3 / 7	5 / 9	0 / 0
2	Ryan Bader	26 / 32	50 / 56	1 / 1
3	Anthony Perosh	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1
3	Ryan Bader	22 / 29	61 / 70	1 / 1

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

Anthony Perosh

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9