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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rustam Khabilov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1492
Rustam Khabilov
Elo1403
Yancy Medeiros

Rustam KhabilovvsYancy MedeirosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · Saturday, April 27, 2013Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Rustam Khabilov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:32

Style matchupRustam Khabilov: WrestlervsYancy Medeiros: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rustam Khabilov wins(84.6%)

Actual result: Rustam Khabilov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rustam Khabilov at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Yancy Medeiros threatens submissions; Rustam Khabilov has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Rustam Khabilov has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Rustam Khabilov
Red Corner
VS
Yancy Medeiros
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1492
Elo
1403
39
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rustam Khabilov
oldest →
W
vs Jason Saggo · Dec 16
W
vs Desmond Green · Sep 17
W
vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 18
L
vs Diego Ferreira · Feb 19
W
vs Sergey Khandozhko · Nov 19
latest
Yancy MedeirosL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18
L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19
L
vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20
L
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rustam KhabilovMetricYancy Medeiros
1.98
Strikes / min
4.36
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
5.67
65%
Strike defense
47%
3.95
TDs / 15 min
0.33
61%
Takedown defense
73%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.18Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes13.0 vs —Takedowns5.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Rustam KhabilovYancy Medeiros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rustam Khabilov(10 fights)Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +89.1|Blue -89.1
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rustam KhabilovTargetYancy Medeiros

By target zone

2
15% acc · 67%
Head
1
8% acc · 25%
0
0% acc
Body
1
25% acc · 25%
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
2
100% acc · 50%

By position

3
18% acc · 100%
Distance
4
22% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rustam Khabilov rounds
0
even
0
Yancy Medeiros rounds
Round 1Rustam Khabilov edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control0:17
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 17
Sig Strikes
4 / 18
17%
Sig Str %
22%
4 / 18
Total Strikes
4 / 18
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:17
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yancy Medeiros4 / 184 / 180 / 00
1Rustam Khabilov3 / 174 / 181 / 20

Rustam Khabilov

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14