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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rustam Khabilov won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Rustam Khabilov
Elo1358

Rustam KhabilovvsLeandro SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · Saturday, September 3, 2016Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Rustam Khabilov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rustam Khabilov wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Rustam Khabilov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rustam Khabilov at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Rustam Khabilov
Red Corner
VS
Leandro Silva
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
1492
Elo
1358
39
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rustam Khabilov
oldest →
W
vs Jason Saggo · Dec 16
W
vs Desmond Green · Sep 17
W
vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 18
L
vs Diego Ferreira · Feb 19
W
vs Sergey Khandozhko · Nov 19
latest
Leandro Silva
oldest →
L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 14
W
SUBvs Charlie Brenneman · Nov 14
W
vs Lewis Gonzalez · Jun 15
W
vs Efrain Escudero · Nov 15
L
vs Jason Saggo · Jun 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rustam KhabilovMetricLeandro Silva
1.98
Strikes / min
2.39
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
2.08
65%
Strike defense
63%
3.95
TDs / 15 min
1.76
61%
Takedown defense
65%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1560 vs 1502Strikes23.9 vs 30.7Takedowns3.7 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.14 vs 0.43Form0.7 vs -0.0
Rustam KhabilovLeandro Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Rustam Khabilov(10 fights)Leandro Silva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +134.1|Blue -134.1
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +41.0|Blue -41.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rustam KhabilovTargetLeandro Silva

By target zone

12
19% acc · 50%
Head
13
23% acc · 45%
1
20% acc · 4%
Body
11
55% acc · 38%
11
73% acc · 46%
Leg
5
83% acc · 17%

By position

18
25% acc · 75%
Distance
26
33% acc · 90%
0
0% acc
Clinch
3
75% acc · 10%
6
75% acc · 25%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Rustam Khabilov rounds
1
even
0
Leandro Silva rounds
Round 1Rustam Khabilov edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:48
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Round 2Rustam Khabilov edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:37
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control1:27
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
24 / 82
Sig Strikes
29 / 83
29%
Sig Str %
35.7%
49 / 111
Total Strikes
40 / 95
2 / 10
TDs
0 / 2
23.3%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:52
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Leandro Silva8 / 2416 / 320 / 00
1Rustam Khabilov9 / 2714 / 340 / 30
2Leandro Silva11 / 2312 / 250 / 10
2Rustam Khabilov9 / 3018 / 411 / 20
3Leandro Silva10 / 3612 / 380 / 10
3Rustam Khabilov6 / 2517 / 361 / 50

Rustam Khabilov

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13

Leandro Silva

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7