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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rustam Khabilov won · S-DEC R3
Elo1492
Rustam Khabilov
Elo1368

Rustam KhabilovvsKajan JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Saturday, September 15, 2018Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Rustam Khabilov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rustam Khabilov wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Rustam Khabilov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rustam Khabilov at -840 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Rustam Khabilov
Red Corner
VS
Kajan Johnson
Blue Corner
-840
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+570
(15%)
1492
Elo
1368
39
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rustam Khabilov
oldest →
W
vs Leandro Silva · Sep 16
W
vs Jason Saggo · Dec 16
W
vs Desmond Green · Sep 17
L
vs Diego Ferreira · Feb 19
W
vs Sergey Khandozhko · Nov 19
latest
Kajan Johnson
oldest →
W
DECvs Zhang Lipeng · May 15
W
vs Naoyuki Kotani · Sep 15
W
KOvs Adriano Martins · Sep 17
W
vs Stevie Ray · Mar 18
L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jul 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rustam KhabilovMetricKajan Johnson
1.98
Strikes / min
2.47
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
1.59
65%
Strike defense
64%
3.95
TDs / 15 min
1.54
61%
Takedown defense
62%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.18Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1607 vs 1538Strikes26.7 vs 28.7Takedowns3.5 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.17Form1.0 vs 0.1
Rustam KhabilovKajan Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Rustam Khabilov(10 fights)Kajan Johnson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +124.4|Blue -124.4
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +329.0|Blue -329.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rustam KhabilovTargetKajan Johnson

By target zone

16
25% acc · 94%
Head
15
18% acc · 34%
1
17% acc · 6%
Body
6
60% acc · 14%
0
Leg
23
82% acc · 52%

By position

11
19% acc · 65%
Distance
42
36% acc · 95%
2
40% acc · 12%
Clinch
2
40% acc · 5%
4
67% acc · 24%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rustam Khabilov rounds
0
even
2
Kajan Johnson rounds
Round 1Kajan Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rustam Khabilov edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control2:51
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Kajan Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns2
Control1:20
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
17 / 70
Sig Strikes
44 / 123
24.3%
Sig Str %
35%
34 / 88
Total Strikes
57 / 137
3 / 8
TDs
0 / 0
30.3%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:11
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kajan Johnson20 / 5820 / 580 / 00
1Rustam Khabilov5 / 325 / 320 / 10
2Kajan Johnson8 / 2618 / 360 / 00
2Rustam Khabilov10 / 2121 / 321 / 40
3Kajan Johnson16 / 3919 / 430 / 00
3Rustam Khabilov2 / 178 / 242 / 30

Rustam Khabilov

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13

Kajan Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights7