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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Ferreira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1489

Rustam KhabilovvsDiego FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · Saturday, February 23, 2019Prague, Czech Republic

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRustam Khabilov: WrestlervsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rustam Khabilov wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rustam Khabilov at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rustam Khabilov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Rustam Khabilov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Rustam Khabilov

Red Corner

Diego Ferreira

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1492

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rustam KhabilovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Leandro Silva · Sep 16

vs Jason Saggo · Dec 16

vs Desmond Green · Sep 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 18

vs Sergey Khandozhko · Nov 19

latest

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rustam KhabilovMetricDiego Ferreira

1.98

Strikes / min

4.70

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

65%

Strike defense

55%

3.95

TDs / 15 min

0.82

61%

Takedown defense

57%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rustam KhabilovDiego Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rustam Khabilov(10 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rustam KhabilovTargetDiego Ferreira

By target zone

25% acc · 74%

Head

23% acc · 66%

50% acc · 23%

Body

50% acc · 22%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

91% acc · 12%

By position

27% acc · 84%

Distance

26% acc · 83%

60% acc · 14%

Clinch

67% acc · 12%

33% acc · 2%

Ground

80% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rustam Khabilov rounds

even

Diego Ferreira rounds

Round 1Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:32

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control0:05

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:24

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 147

Sig Strikes

83 / 284

29.3%

Sig Str %

28.7%

44 / 149

Total Strikes

91 / 293

3 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Ferreira	25 / 80	28 / 84	0 / 0	1
1	Rustam Khabilov	13 / 38	14 / 39	1 / 3	0
2	Diego Ferreira	23 / 97	23 / 97	0 / 0	0
2	Rustam Khabilov	17 / 57	17 / 57	2 / 3	0
3	Diego Ferreira	35 / 107	40 / 112	0 / 0	0
3	Rustam Khabilov	13 / 52	13 / 53	0 / 6	0

Rustam Khabilov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17