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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rustam Khabilov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1491

Rustam KhabilovvsChris WadeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Rustam Khabilov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRustam Khabilov: WrestlervsChris Wade: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chris Wade wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Rustam Khabilov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Wade at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Wade threatens submissions; Rustam Khabilov has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Rustam Khabilov has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Rustam Khabilov

Red Corner

Chris Wade

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1492

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rustam Khabilov

oldest →

vs Jason Saggo · Dec 16

vs Desmond Green · Sep 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 18

vs Diego Ferreira · Feb 19

vs Sergey Khandozhko · Nov 19

latest

Chris Wade

oldest →

DECvs Zhang Lipeng · Jan 15

vs Christos Giagos · Jun 15

SUBvs Mehdi Baghdad · Jan 16

vs Islam Makhachev · Sep 16

vs Frankie Perez · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rustam KhabilovMetricChris Wade

1.98

Strikes / min

1.70

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

65%

Strike defense

51%

3.95

TDs / 15 min

2.60

61%

Takedown defense

55%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rustam KhabilovChris Wade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rustam Khabilov(10 fights)Chris Wade(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -41.0|Blue +41.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rustam KhabilovTargetChris Wade

By target zone

66% acc · 78%

Head

29% acc · 44%

67% acc · 4%

Body

64% acc · 28%

82% acc · 18%

Leg

78% acc · 28%

By position

50% acc · 40%

Distance

42% acc · 88%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

93% acc · 56%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rustam Khabilov rounds

even

Chris Wade rounds

Round 1Rustam Khabilov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:35

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:16

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:22Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Rustam Khabilov edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns3

Control3:46

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 73

Sig Strikes

25 / 58

65.3%

Sig Str %

41.7%

79 / 110

Total Strikes

42 / 76

6 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

80%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:37

Ctrl Time

2:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Wade	13 / 29	14 / 30	0 / 0
1	Rustam Khabilov	14 / 22	21 / 29	2 / 5
2	Chris Wade	4 / 14	12 / 23	0 / 0
2	Rustam Khabilov	10 / 19	11 / 20	1 / 1
3	Chris Wade	8 / 15	16 / 23	0 / 0
3	Rustam Khabilov	26 / 32	47 / 61	3 / 3

Rustam Khabilov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Chris Wade

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7