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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Adriano Martins won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1362

Rustam KhabilovvsAdriano MartinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · Sunday, February 22, 2015Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Official fight result

Adriano Martins won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rustam Khabilov wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Adriano Martins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rustam Khabilov at -380 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Adriano Martins has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Adriano Martins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rustam Khabilov

Red Corner

Adriano Martins

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1492

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rustam Khabilov

oldest →

vs Jason Saggo · Dec 16

vs Desmond Green · Sep 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 18

vs Diego Ferreira · Feb 19

vs Sergey Khandozhko · Nov 19

latest

Adriano MartinsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 14

KOvs Juan Puig · Jul 14

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 15

vs Leonardo Santos · Oct 16

KOvs Kajan Johnson · Sep 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rustam KhabilovMetricAdriano Martins

1.98

Strikes / min

1.80

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

65%

Strike defense

65%

3.95

TDs / 15 min

0.83

61%

Takedown defense

81%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rustam KhabilovAdriano Martins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rustam Khabilov(10 fights)Adriano Martins(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +130.2|Blue -130.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rustam KhabilovTargetAdriano Martins

By target zone

16% acc · 56%

Head

19% acc · 50%

64% acc · 39%

Body

67% acc · 17%

20% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

22% acc · 94%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rustam Khabilov rounds

even

Adriano Martins rounds

Round 1Adriano Martins edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Rustam Khabilov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Adriano Martins edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:06

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 80

Sig Strikes

12 / 38

22.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

19 / 81

Total Strikes

17 / 44

0 / 4

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

1:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Adriano Martins	4 / 12	5 / 13	1 / 1
1	Rustam Khabilov	5 / 20	5 / 20	0 / 1
2	Adriano Martins	4 / 16	4 / 16	0 / 1
2	Rustam Khabilov	9 / 41	9 / 41	0 / 1
3	Adriano Martins	4 / 10	8 / 15	2 / 2
3	Rustam Khabilov	4 / 19	5 / 20	0 / 2

Rustam Khabilov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Adriano Martins

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7