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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Pedro Munhoz won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Russell Doane
Elo1488
Pedro Munhoz

Russell DoanevsPedro MunhozUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pedro Munhoz won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:08

Style matchupRussell Doane: WrestlervsPedro Munhoz: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Pedro Munhoz wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Pedro Munhoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pedro Munhoz at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Pedro Munhoz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Pedro Munhoz has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Russell Doane has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Russell Doane
Red Corner
VS
Pedro Munhoz
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
1491
Elo
1488
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Russell Doane
oldest →
L
vs Iuri Alcantara · Sep 14
L
vs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 15
L
SUBvs Mirsad Bektic · Oct 16
W
KOvs Kwan Ho Kwak · Jun 17
L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Feb 18
latest
Pedro MunhozL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Dominick Cruz · Dec 21
W
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 23
L
vs Marlon Vera · Aug 23
L
vs Kyler Phillips · Mar 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · Nov 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Russell DoaneMetricPedro Munhoz
1.75
Strikes / min
5.38
1.68
Strikes absorbed / min
6.29
53%
Strike defense
55%
2.11
TDs / 15 min
0.48
52%
Takedown defense
82%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1488Strikes23.5 vs 31.3Takedowns2.5 vs 0.5Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.75Form-0.4 vs -0.6
Russell DoanePedro Munhoz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Russell Doane(8 fights)Pedro Munhoz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.5|Blue -2.5
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +118.0|Blue -118.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Russell DoaneTargetPedro Munhoz

By target zone

11
37% acc · 61%
Head
8
50% acc · 57%
6
60% acc · 33%
Body
3
60% acc · 21%
1
100% acc · 6%
Leg
3
75% acc · 21%

By position

17
43% acc · 94%
Distance
14
58% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Russell Doane rounds
1
even
0
Pedro Munhoz rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:08
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:20Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 41
Sig Strikes
14 / 25
43%
Sig Str %
56%
18 / 41
Total Strikes
14 / 25
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
0:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Pedro Munhoz14 / 2514 / 251 / 21
1Russell Doane18 / 4118 / 410 / 00

Russell Doane

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights8

Pedro Munhoz

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights20