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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ruslan Magomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Ruslan MagomedovvsJosh CopelandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · Saturday, November 22, 2014Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Ruslan Magomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ruslan Magomedov wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Ruslan Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ruslan Magomedov at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ruslan Magomedov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ruslan Magomedov has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ruslan Magomedov

Red Corner

Josh Copeland

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ruslan MagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Viktor Pesta · May 14

vs Shawn Jordan · Oct 15

latest

Josh Copeland

oldest →

KOvs Jared Rosholt · Mar 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ruslan MagomedovMetricJosh Copeland

4.02

Strikes / min

1.03

1.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

66%

Strike defense

55%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.00

88%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.55Δ 4.53 — meaningful gap-1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ruslan MagomedovJosh Copeland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ruslan Magomedov(3 fights)Josh Copeland(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.1|Blue -136.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ruslan MagomedovTargetJosh Copeland

By target zone

29% acc · 48%

Head

29% acc · 65%

80% acc · 32%

Body

60% acc · 30%

87% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

39% acc · 81%

Distance

28% acc · 65%

92% acc · 19%

Clinch

70% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ruslan Magomedov rounds

even

Josh Copeland rounds

Round 1Ruslan Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Ruslan Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ruslan Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:27

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 145

Sig Strikes

20 / 56

43.7%

Sig Str %

35.7%

65 / 147

Total Strikes

20 / 56

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Josh Copeland	5 / 18	5 / 18	0 / 0
1	Ruslan Magomedov	18 / 50	18 / 50	0 / 0
2	Josh Copeland	9 / 18	9 / 18	0 / 0
2	Ruslan Magomedov	25 / 55	25 / 55	0 / 0
3	Josh Copeland	6 / 20	6 / 20	0 / 0
3	Ruslan Magomedov	20 / 40	22 / 42	1 / 1

Ruslan Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3

Josh Copeland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2