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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stipe Miocic won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1494

Roy NelsonvsStipe MiocicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · Saturday, June 15, 2013Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Stipe Miocic wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stipe Miocic at +250 American odds

+$250 profit

$350 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Stipe Miocic has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Stipe Miocic has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson

Red Corner

Stipe Miocic

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1491

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Stipe MiocicL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19

vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21

KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricStipe Miocic

2.18

Strikes / min

4.67

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

46%

Strike defense

52%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

1.74

65%

Takedown defense

65%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.61Δ 3.27 — meaningful gap+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roy NelsonStipe Miocic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roy Nelson(10 fights)Stipe Miocic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.2|Blue +3.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -210.0|Blue +210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetStipe Miocic

By target zone

16% acc · 83%

Head

58% acc · 85%

25% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

18% acc · 96%

Distance

57% acc · 76%

25% acc · 4%

Clinch

80% acc · 23%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roy Nelson rounds

even

Stipe Miocic rounds

Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:18

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 3Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:03

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 127

Sig Strikes

106 / 172

18%

Sig Str %

62.3%

25 / 130

Total Strikes

129 / 197

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 8

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

2:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stipe Miocic	32 / 64	39 / 73	0 / 2
1	Roy Nelson	10 / 46	12 / 48	0 / 1
2	Stipe Miocic	39 / 58	46 / 65	0 / 3
2	Roy Nelson	8 / 34	8 / 34	0 / 0
3	Stipe Miocic	35 / 50	44 / 59	1 / 3
3	Roy Nelson	5 / 47	5 / 48	0 / 0

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19