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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1391
Stefan Struve

Roy NelsonvsStefan StruveUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · Wednesday, March 31, 2010Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Roy Nelson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:39

Model Prediction: Stefan Struve wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stefan Struve at +290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
  • Stefan Struve has a 28cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Stefan Struve
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
1491
Elo
1391
50
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson
oldest →
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15
W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17
latest
Stefan StruveL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18
L
vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18
W
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19
L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19
L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricStefan Struve
2.18
Strikes / min
3.12
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
4.04
46%
Strike defense
46%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
0.56
65%
Takedown defense
55%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes8.0 vs 17.5Takedowns1.0 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 3.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Roy NelsonStefan Struve

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Stefan Struve(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +100.2|Blue -100.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetStefan Struve

By target zone

9
60% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 100%

By position

3
50% acc · 33%
Distance
2
40% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
6
67% acc · 67%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Roy Nelson rounds
0
even
0
Stefan Struve rounds
Round 1Roy Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:08
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
9 / 15
Sig Strikes
2 / 5
60%
Sig Str %
40%
9 / 15
Total Strikes
2 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Stefan Struve2 / 52 / 50 / 00
1Roy Nelson9 / 159 / 150 / 00

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox
Height83.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights20