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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1356
Matt Mitrione

Roy NelsonvsMatt MitrioneUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roy Nelson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:58

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Mitrione has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
  • Matt Mitrione has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Matt Mitrione
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1491
Elo
1356
50
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson
oldest →
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15
W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17
latest
Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14
W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14
L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricMatt Mitrione
2.18
Strikes / min
3.55
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
46%
Strike defense
64%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
0.00
65%
Takedown defense
55%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 3.37 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1536Strikes19.7 vs 34.7Takedowns0.4 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.14 vs 0.67Form0.1 vs 0.3
Roy NelsonMatt Mitrione

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +134.7|Blue -134.7
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -210.0|Blue +210.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetMatt Mitrione

By target zone

22
43% acc · 96%
Head
9
41% acc · 69%
0
0% acc
Body
3
60% acc · 23%
1
100% acc · 4%
Leg
1
100% acc · 8%

By position

19
40% acc · 83%
Distance
10
40% acc · 77%
0
0% acc
Clinch
3
100% acc · 23%
4
80% acc · 17%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Roy Nelson rounds
0
even
0
Matt Mitrione rounds
Round 1Roy Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:48
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
23 / 53
Sig Strikes
13 / 28
43%
Sig Str %
46%
23 / 53
Total Strikes
13 / 28
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:48
Ctrl Time
0:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Matt Mitrione13 / 2813 / 280 / 00
1Roy Nelson23 / 5323 / 530 / 10

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights13