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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Roy Nelson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1490

Roy NelsonvsJared RosholtUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · Saturday, February 6, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roy Nelson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jared Rosholt wins(79.5%)

Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Rosholt at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Rosholt enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Jared Rosholt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jared Rosholt has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson

Red Corner

Jared Rosholt

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Jared RosholtW3 streak

oldest →

vs Soa Palelei · Jun 14

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Nov 14

KOvs Josh Copeland · Mar 15

DECvs Tim Johnson · Aug 15

vs Stefan Struve · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricJared Rosholt

2.18

Strikes / min

2.08

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

1.52

46%

Strike defense

59%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

1.83

65%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.61Δ 3.17 — meaningful gap+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roy NelsonJared Rosholt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roy Nelson(10 fights)Jared Rosholt(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetJared Rosholt

By target zone

32% acc · 86%

Head

25% acc · 72%

67% acc · 5%

Body

71% acc · 14%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

71% acc · 14%

By position

35% acc · 100%

Distance

30% acc · 94%

0% acc

Clinch

40% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roy Nelson rounds

even

Jared Rosholt rounds

Round 1Jared Rosholt edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Roy Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Roy Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 121

Sig Strikes

36 / 120

33.3%

Sig Str %

30.3%

42 / 121

Total Strikes

36 / 120

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Rosholt	13 / 37	13 / 37	0 / 0
1	Roy Nelson	6 / 36	6 / 36	0 / 0
2	Jared Rosholt	11 / 35	11 / 35	0 / 1
2	Roy Nelson	16 / 36	16 / 36	0 / 0
3	Jared Rosholt	12 / 48	12 / 48	0 / 1
3	Roy Nelson	20 / 49	20 / 49	0 / 1

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18

Jared Rosholt

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8