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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Fabricio Werdum won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1493

Roy NelsonvsFabricio WerdumUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Roy Nelson has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Fabricio Werdum has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson

Red Corner

Fabricio Werdum

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricFabricio Werdum

2.18

Strikes / min

3.59

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

46%

Strike defense

55%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

1.75

65%

Takedown defense

31%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.61Δ 3.56 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roy NelsonFabricio Werdum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roy Nelson(10 fights)Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetFabricio Werdum

By target zone

30% acc · 69%

Head

53% acc · 52%

100% acc · 19%

Body

89% acc · 26%

75% acc · 12%

Leg

95% acc · 22%

By position

36% acc · 81%

Distance

64% acc · 86%

44% acc · 15%

Clinch

87% acc · 14%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roy Nelson rounds

even

Fabricio Werdum rounds

Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:14

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:30

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 69

Sig Strikes

91 / 136

42.3%

Sig Str %

65.7%

55 / 99

Total Strikes

98 / 145

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:44

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fabricio Werdum	20 / 36	25 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Roy Nelson	5 / 9	27 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Fabricio Werdum	39 / 50	40 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Roy Nelson	11 / 37	15 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Fabricio Werdum	32 / 50	33 / 51	0 / 1	0
3	Roy Nelson	10 / 23	13 / 26	0 / 0	1

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14