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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1481

Roy NelsonvsDerrick LewisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Roy Nelson wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roy Nelson at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Derrick Lewis has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson

Red Corner

Derrick Lewis

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1491

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricDerrick Lewis

2.18

Strikes / min

2.46

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

46%

Strike defense

39%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.55

65%

Takedown defense

52%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.61Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roy NelsonDerrick Lewis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roy Nelson(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.3|Blue -9.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetDerrick Lewis

By target zone

17% acc · 75%

Head

42% acc · 68%

Body

92% acc · 30%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

13% acc · 50%

Distance

35% acc · 43%

67% acc · 50%

Clinch

78% acc · 57%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roy Nelson rounds

even

Derrick Lewis rounds

Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control3:24

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Roy Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control2:44

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Roy Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control3:31

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 19

Sig Strikes

37 / 73

15.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

66 / 89

Total Strikes

39 / 75

7 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:39

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Derrick Lewis	24 / 37	26 / 39	0 / 0
1	Roy Nelson	0 / 2	25 / 31	2 / 4
2	Derrick Lewis	3 / 13	3 / 13	0 / 0
2	Roy Nelson	2 / 8	19 / 26	3 / 3
3	Derrick Lewis	10 / 23	10 / 23	0 / 0
3	Roy Nelson	2 / 9	22 / 32	2 / 3

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31