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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1352
Dave Herman

Roy NelsonvsDave HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roy Nelson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:51

Model Prediction: Dave Herman wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dave Herman at +152 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dave Herman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Dave Herman has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Dave Herman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Dave Herman
Blue Corner
-162
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+152
(40%)
1491
Elo
1352
50
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson
oldest →
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15
W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17
latest
Dave HermanL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jon Olav Einemo · Jun 11
L
KOvs Stefan Struve · Feb 12
L
SUBvs Minotauro Nogueira · Oct 12
L
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Jul 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricDave Herman
2.18
Strikes / min
4.98
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
46%
Strike defense
48%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
1.49
65%
Takedown defense
58%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 3.81 — meaningful gap+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1500Strikes22.7 vs 53.0Takedowns0.5 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.17 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs -0.3
Roy NelsonDave Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Dave Herman(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.5|Blue -138.5
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +11.0|Blue -11.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetDave Herman

By target zone

1
33% acc · 50%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 50%
Body
3
60% acc · 100%
0
Leg
0

By position

2
50% acc · 100%
Distance
3
38% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Roy Nelson rounds
0
even
0
Dave Herman rounds
Round 1Roy Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
2 / 4
Sig Strikes
3 / 8
50%
Sig Str %
37%
3 / 5
Total Strikes
3 / 8
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dave Herman3 / 83 / 80 / 00
1Roy Nelson2 / 43 / 50 / 00

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18

Dave Herman

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights5