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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1490
Cheick Kongo

Roy NelsonvsCheick KongoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · Saturday, April 27, 2013Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Roy Nelson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:03

Model Prediction: Cheick Kongo wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cheick Kongo at +215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Cheick Kongo has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Cheick Kongo has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Cheick Kongo
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1491
Elo
1490
50
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson
oldest →
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15
W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17
latest
Cheick Kongo
oldest →
W
KOvs Paul Buentello · Mar 10
W
KOvs Pat Barry · Jun 11
W
vs Matt Mitrione · Oct 11
L
KOvs Mark Hunt · Feb 12
W
vs Shawn Jordan · Jul 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricCheick Kongo
2.18
Strikes / min
3.33
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
1.28
46%
Strike defense
54%
1.14
TDs / 15 min
2.30
65%
Takedown defense
52%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.61Δ 4.66 — meaningful gap+2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1539Strikes20.1 vs 33.5Takedowns0.4 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.13 vs 0.18Form0.5 vs 0.5
Roy NelsonCheick Kongo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Cheick Kongo(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -147.0|Blue +147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetCheick Kongo

By target zone

2
50% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Body
2
100% acc · 50%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 50%

By position

1
50% acc · 50%
Distance
2
50% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
100% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Roy Nelson rounds
0
even
0
Cheick Kongo rounds
Round 1Roy Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control1:11
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
2 / 5
Sig Strikes
4 / 6
40%
Sig Str %
66%
3 / 6
Total Strikes
8 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:11
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cheick Kongo4 / 68 / 100 / 00
1Roy Nelson2 / 53 / 60 / 00

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18

Cheick Kongo

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights6