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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1358

Roy NelsonvsAntonio SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Saturday, September 24, 2016Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Roy Nelson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:10

Model Prediction: Roy Nelson wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roy Nelson at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Antonio Silva has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Antonio Silva has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson

Red Corner

Antonio Silva

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1491

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy NelsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Antonio SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 14

KOvs Frank Mir · Feb 15

KOvs Soa Palelei · Aug 15

KOvs Mark Hunt · Nov 15

KOvs Stefan Struve · May 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricAntonio Silva

2.18

Strikes / min

2.89

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

46%

Strike defense

50%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.82

65%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.61Δ 2.41 — meaningful gap-0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roy NelsonAntonio Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roy Nelson(10 fights)Antonio Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.8|Blue -132.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -60.0|Blue +60.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetAntonio Silva

By target zone

46% acc · 69%

Head

20% acc · 26%

80% acc · 11%

Body

60% acc · 33%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 41%

By position

42% acc · 56%

Distance

43% acc · 89%

85% acc · 31%

Clinch

60% acc · 11%

100% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roy Nelson rounds

even

Antonio Silva rounds

Round 1Roy Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:26

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Roy Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 66

Sig Strikes

27 / 61

54%

Sig Str %

44.5%

38 / 68

Total Strikes

46 / 81

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonio Silva	14 / 28	33 / 48	0 / 0
1	Roy Nelson	18 / 33	20 / 35	0 / 1
2	Antonio Silva	13 / 33	13 / 33	0 / 2
2	Roy Nelson	18 / 33	18 / 33	0 / 0

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18

Antonio Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights10