Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alistair Overeem won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1493

Roy NelsonvsAlistair OvereemUFC Prediction Result

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · Saturday, March 14, 2015Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Alistair Overeem has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alistair Overeem has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson

Red Corner

Alistair Overeem

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricAlistair Overeem

2.18

Strikes / min

3.67

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

46%

Strike defense

57%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

1.42

65%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.61Δ 3.84 — meaningful gap+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roy NelsonAlistair Overeem

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roy Nelson(10 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetAlistair Overeem

By target zone

26% acc · 78%

Head

62% acc · 29%

67% acc · 17%

Body

73% acc · 39%

33% acc · 4%

Leg

91% acc · 32%

By position

23% acc · 61%

Distance

74% acc · 95%

60% acc · 39%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roy Nelson rounds

even

Alistair Overeem rounds

Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:34

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 77

Sig Strikes

62 / 84

30.3%

Sig Str %

73.7%

23 / 77

Total Strikes

62 / 84

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alistair Overeem	25 / 28	25 / 28	0 / 0
1	Roy Nelson	11 / 25	11 / 25	0 / 1
2	Alistair Overeem	18 / 29	18 / 29	0 / 1
2	Roy Nelson	5 / 29	5 / 29	0 / 0
3	Alistair Overeem	19 / 27	19 / 27	0 / 1
3	Roy Nelson	7 / 23	7 / 23	0 / 3

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20