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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Viviane Araujo won · U-DEC

Elo1418

Elo1497

Roxanne ModafferivsViviane AraujoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Viviane Araujo won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Viviane Araujo wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Viviane Araujo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Viviane Araujo at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Viviane Araujo has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi

Red Corner

Viviane Araujo

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-335

(77%)

1418

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Maycee Barber · Jan 20

vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20

vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20

vs Taila Santos · Sep 21

vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22

latest

Viviane Araujo

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 23

vs Jennifer Maia · Oct 23

vs Natalia Silva · Feb 24

vs Karine Silva · Nov 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricViviane Araujo

3.35

Strikes / min

3.84

5.70

Strikes absorbed / min

4.83

51%

Strike defense

55%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.72

30%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.35Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap-0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roxanne ModafferiViviane Araujo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Viviane Araujo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -79.2|Blue +79.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetViviane Araujo

By target zone

23% acc · 87%

Head

42% acc · 92%

67% acc · 4%

Body

63% acc · 6%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

67% acc · 2%

By position

25% acc · 98%

Distance

44% acc · 99%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roxanne Modafferi rounds

even

Viviane Araujo rounds

Round 1Viviane Araujo edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:17

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Viviane Araujo edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 3Viviane Araujo edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:22

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 184

Sig Strikes

86 / 198

24.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

49 / 193

Total Strikes

100 / 214

0 / 5

TDs

4 / 4

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

3:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Viviane Araujo	34 / 77	37 / 82	1 / 1	1
1	Roxanne Modafferi	12 / 61	12 / 63	0 / 1	0
2	Viviane Araujo	32 / 73	37 / 78	1 / 1	0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	21 / 71	23 / 73	0 / 2	0
3	Viviane Araujo	20 / 48	26 / 54	2 / 2	0
3	Roxanne Modafferi	13 / 52	14 / 57	0 / 2	0

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Viviane Araujo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13