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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Taila Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1418

Elo1477

Roxanne ModafferivsTaila SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Taila Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Taila Santos wins(81.3%)

Actual result: Taila Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Taila Santos at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Taila Santos has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi

Red Corner

Taila Santos

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-400

(80%)

1418

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Maycee Barber · Jan 20

vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20

vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20

vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21

vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22

latest

Taila SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Molly McCann · Jul 20

vs Gillian Robertson · Dec 20

SUBvs Joanne Wood · Nov 21

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Jun 22

vs Erin Blanchfield · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricTaila Santos

3.35

Strikes / min

3.39

5.70

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

51%

Strike defense

58%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

2.00

30%

Takedown defense

86%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.35Δ 3.10 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roxanne ModafferiTaila Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Taila Santos(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.1|Blue +59.1

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -32.0|Blue +32.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetTaila Santos

By target zone

15% acc · 72%

Head

51% acc · 69%

67% acc · 11%

Body

73% acc · 15%

75% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

18% acc · 89%

Distance

56% acc · 73%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

89% acc · 15%

Ground

50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roxanne Modafferi rounds

even

Taila Santos rounds

Round 1Taila Santos edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:17

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:50Control

Round 2Taila Santos edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:30

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:49Control

Round 3Taila Santos edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:24Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 92

Sig Strikes

55 / 95

24%

Sig Str %

56.7%

43 / 124

Total Strikes

118 / 164

0 / 4

TDs

5 / 5

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:02

Ctrl Time

8:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Taila Santos	18 / 30	35 / 50	2 / 2
1	Roxanne Modafferi	6 / 24	19 / 38	0 / 1
2	Taila Santos	9 / 17	34 / 43	2 / 2
2	Roxanne Modafferi	4 / 12	14 / 28	0 / 2
3	Taila Santos	28 / 48	49 / 71	1 / 1
3	Roxanne Modafferi	8 / 56	10 / 58	0 / 1

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Taila Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7