← All fights/Event page

Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raquel Pennington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1418

Elo1504

Roxanne ModafferivsRaquel PenningtonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · Saturday, November 30, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Roxanne Modafferi wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roxanne Modafferi at +400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Raquel Pennington has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Raquel Pennington has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi

Red Corner

Raquel Pennington

Blue Corner

+400

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-450

(82%)

1418

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20

vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20

vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21

vs Taila Santos · Sep 21

vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22

latest

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricRaquel Pennington

3.35

Strikes / min

4.10

5.70

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

51%

Strike defense

61%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

0.83

30%

Takedown defense

62%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.35Δ 3.13 — meaningful gap+0.78

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Raquel Pennington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -86.7|Blue +86.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetRaquel Pennington

By target zone

14% acc · 52%

Head

54% acc · 71%

43% acc · 29%

Body

79% acc · 19%

73% acc · 19%

Leg

89% acc · 10%

By position

19% acc · 83%

Distance

52% acc · 63%

70% acc · 17%

Clinch

85% acc · 14%

Ground

79% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roxanne Modafferi rounds

even

Raquel Pennington rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:40

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:41

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 3Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:20

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 194

Sig Strikes

80 / 133

20%

Sig Str %

59.7%

63 / 218

Total Strikes

86 / 140

0 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:41

Ctrl Time

4:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Raquel Pennington	29 / 52	30 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	26 / 106	28 / 108	0 / 2	0
2	Raquel Pennington	22 / 38	25 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	8 / 39	18 / 51	0 / 3	0
3	Raquel Pennington	29 / 43	31 / 45	1 / 1	1
3	Roxanne Modafferi	8 / 49	17 / 59	0 / 2	0

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19