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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Roxanne Modafferi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1418

Elo1514

Roxanne ModafferivsMaycee BarberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Saturday, January 18, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roxanne Modafferi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Maycee Barber wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Roxanne Modafferi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maycee Barber at -830 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Maycee Barber has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Maycee Barber (52.9%).
Roxanne Modafferi has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi

Red Corner

Maycee Barber

Blue Corner

+655

(13%)

Vegas Odds

-830

(89%)

1418

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20

vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20

vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21

vs Taila Santos · Sep 21

vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22

latest

Maycee Barber

oldest →

vs Andrea Lee · Mar 23

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jun 23

vs Katlyn Cerminara · Mar 24

vs Karine Silva · Dec 25

KOvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricMaycee Barber

3.35

Strikes / min

4.56

5.70

Strikes absorbed / min

2.78

51%

Strike defense

55%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.56

30%

Takedown defense

51%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.35Δ 4.13 — meaningful gap+1.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roxanne ModafferiMaycee Barber

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Maycee Barber(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -95.8|Blue +95.8

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +90.0|Blue -90.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetMaycee Barber

By target zone

41% acc · 89%

Head

52% acc · 94%

100% acc · 11%

Body

50% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 58%

Distance

47% acc · 56%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

64% acc · 37%

Ground

58% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roxanne Modafferi rounds

even

Maycee Barber rounds

Round 1Roxanne Modafferi edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:45

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Roxanne Modafferi edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control3:42

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control3:05

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 43

Sig Strikes

16 / 31

42.3%

Sig Str %

54%

112 / 155

Total Strikes

25 / 45

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:32

Ctrl Time

2:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Maycee Barber	5 / 14	7 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	11 / 22	47 / 61	1 / 1	0
2	Maycee Barber	4 / 7	6 / 12	0 / 0	0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	5 / 10	41 / 58	0 / 0	0
3	Maycee Barber	7 / 10	12 / 16	0 / 0	1
3	Roxanne Modafferi	3 / 11	24 / 36	0 / 0	0

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Maycee Barber

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13