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Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Lauren Murphy won · U-DEC R3
Elo1418
Roxanne Modafferi
Elo1493

Roxanne ModafferivsLauren MurphyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 20, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Lauren Murphy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Lauren Murphy wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Lauren Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lauren Murphy at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Lauren Murphy has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi
Red Corner
VS
Lauren Murphy
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1418
Elo
1493
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'5"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Maycee Barber · Jan 20
W
vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20
L
vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21
L
vs Taila Santos · Sep 21
L
vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22
latest
Lauren MurphyL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21
L
KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21
W
vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22
L
vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23
L
vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricLauren Murphy
3.35
Strikes / min
3.94
5.70
Strikes absorbed / min
5.19
51%
Strike defense
56%
1.35
TDs / 15 min
1.09
30%
Takedown defense
67%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.35Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1493 vs 1507Strikes3.1 vs 3.8Takedowns1.4 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.8
Roxanne ModafferiLauren Murphy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Lauren Murphy(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -75.2|Blue +75.2
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetLauren Murphy

By target zone

34
22% acc · 77%
Head
46
36% acc · 64%
5
33% acc · 11%
Body
8
67% acc · 11%
5
71% acc · 11%
Leg
18
95% acc · 25%

By position

39
24% acc · 89%
Distance
65
43% acc · 90%
5
45% acc · 11%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 4%
0
Ground
4
80% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Roxanne Modafferi rounds
0
even
3
Lauren Murphy rounds
Round 1Lauren Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control1:14
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Lauren Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control1:44
23Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 3Lauren Murphy edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control1:10
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
44 / 174
Sig Strikes
72 / 158
24.3%
Sig Str %
44.7%
71 / 206
Total Strikes
92 / 178
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 3
0%
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
4:08
Ctrl Time
0:53

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lauren Murphy19 / 4822 / 510 / 00
1Roxanne Modafferi12 / 5418 / 600 / 00
2Lauren Murphy23 / 4836 / 611 / 20
2Roxanne Modafferi10 / 4520 / 580 / 10
3Lauren Murphy30 / 6234 / 661 / 10
3Roxanne Modafferi22 / 7533 / 880 / 00

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights12

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights15