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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jennifer Maia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1418

Elo1499

Roxanne ModafferivsJennifer MaiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Saturday, July 20, 2019San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jennifer Maia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jennifer Maia wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Jennifer Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jennifer Maia at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jennifer Maia has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Roxanne Modafferi has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi

Red Corner

Jennifer Maia

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1418

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20

vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20

vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21

vs Taila Santos · Sep 21

vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22

latest

Jennifer Maia

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 22

vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 22

vs Maryna Moroz · Nov 22

vs Casey O'Neill · Mar 23

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricJennifer Maia

3.35

Strikes / min

4.35

5.70

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

51%

Strike defense

55%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

0.42

30%

Takedown defense

58%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.35Δ 2.18 — meaningful gap-0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roxanne ModafferiJennifer Maia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Jennifer Maia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -81.5|Blue +81.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetJennifer Maia

By target zone

25% acc · 86%

Head

46% acc · 87%

20% acc · 3%

Body

64% acc · 11%

60% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

26% acc · 97%

Distance

43% acc · 78%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

85% acc · 20%

Ground

25% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roxanne Modafferi rounds

even

Jennifer Maia rounds

Round 1Jennifer Maia edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:47

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 2Jennifer Maia edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:10

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 3Jennifer Maia edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:35

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 110

Sig Strikes

83 / 174

27%

Sig Str %

46.3%

76 / 161

Total Strikes

111 / 205

0 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:32

Ctrl Time

3:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jennifer Maia	13 / 35	24 / 48	0 / 0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	6 / 23	20 / 40	0 / 4
2	Jennifer Maia	32 / 57	36 / 61	0 / 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	14 / 36	37 / 60	0 / 3
3	Jennifer Maia	38 / 82	51 / 96	0 / 0
3	Roxanne Modafferi	9 / 51	19 / 61	0 / 2

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Jennifer Maia

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12