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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Casey O'Neill won · S-DEC R3

Elo1418

Elo1520

Roxanne ModafferivsCasey O'NeillUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Casey O'Neill won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Casey O'Neill wins(87.4%)

Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey O'Neill at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Casey O'Neill has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi

Red Corner

Casey O'Neill

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-350

(78%)

1418

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Maycee Barber · Jan 20

vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20

vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20

vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21

vs Taila Santos · Sep 21

latest

Casey O'NeillW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Antonina Shevchenko · Oct 21

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23

SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23

vs Luana Santos · Aug 24

KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricCasey O'Neill

3.35

Strikes / min

7.89

5.70

Strikes absorbed / min

5.53

51%

Strike defense

57%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.40

30%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.35Δ 4.71 — meaningful gap+2.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roxanne ModafferiCasey O'Neill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Casey O'Neill(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -102.7|Blue +102.7

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetCasey O'Neill

By target zone

30% acc · 82%

Head

187

54% acc · 82%

80% acc · 17%

Body

88% acc · 10%

67% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

112

32% acc · 93%

Distance

225

58% acc · 98%

73% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roxanne Modafferi rounds

even

Casey O'Neill rounds

Round 1Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

72Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control0:05

86Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control1:01

71Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

120 / 358

Sig Strikes

229 / 393

33.3%

Sig Str %

57.7%

148 / 390

Total Strikes

230 / 395

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

66.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Casey O'Neill	72 / 130	72 / 130	0 / 0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	44 / 135	44 / 135	0 / 0
2	Casey O'Neill	86 / 142	86 / 142	0 / 1
2	Roxanne Modafferi	35 / 118	40 / 123	1 / 1
3	Casey O'Neill	71 / 121	72 / 123	0 / 1
3	Roxanne Modafferi	41 / 105	64 / 132	1 / 3

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Casey O'Neill

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8