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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Roxanne Modafferi won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1418

Elo1366

Roxanne ModafferivsBarb HonchakUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roxanne Modafferi won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:32

Model Prediction: Roxanne Modafferi wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Roxanne Modafferi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roxanne Modafferi at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Barb Honchak has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Roxanne Modafferi has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Roxanne Modafferi has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi

Red Corner

Barb Honchak

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1418

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20

vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20

vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21

vs Taila Santos · Sep 21

vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22

latest

Barb Honchak

oldest →

vs Lauren Murphy · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricBarb Honchak

3.35

Strikes / min

4.04

5.70

Strikes absorbed / min

4.67

51%

Strike defense

66%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

0.00

30%

Takedown defense

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.35Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roxanne ModafferiBarb Honchak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Barb Honchak(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +51.5|Blue -51.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetBarb Honchak

By target zone

39% acc · 98%

Head

30% acc · 96%

100% acc · 2%

Body

25% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 39%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

62% acc · 61%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roxanne Modafferi rounds

even

Barb Honchak rounds

Round 1Roxanne Modafferi edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control2:36

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Roxanne Modafferi edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control2:47

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 129

Sig Strikes

24 / 80

39%

Sig Str %

28%

86 / 172

Total Strikes

24 / 80

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Barb Honchak	20 / 65	20 / 65	0 / 0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	21 / 65	29 / 74	1 / 1
2	Barb Honchak	4 / 15	4 / 15	0 / 1
2	Roxanne Modafferi	30 / 64	57 / 98	0 / 0

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Barb Honchak

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights2