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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Roxanne Modafferi won · S-DEC R3

Elo1418

Elo1496

Roxanne ModafferivsAntonina ShevchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Saturday, April 20, 2019Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Official fight result

Roxanne Modafferi won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Antonina Shevchenko wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Roxanne Modafferi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonina Shevchenko at -330 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Antonina Shevchenko has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Antonina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi

Red Corner

Antonina Shevchenko

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1418

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20

vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20

vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21

vs Taila Santos · Sep 21

vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22

latest

Antonina Shevchenko

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · May 20

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Nov 20

SUBvs Andrea Lee · May 21

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Oct 21

vs Cortney Casey · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricAntonina Shevchenko

3.35

Strikes / min

3.86

5.70

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

51%

Strike defense

52%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

0.43

30%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.35Δ 3.28 — meaningful gap+0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roxanne ModafferiAntonina Shevchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Antonina Shevchenko(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -77.9|Blue +77.9

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetAntonina Shevchenko

By target zone

40% acc · 88%

Head

50% acc · 78%

60% acc · 9%

Body

92% acc · 19%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

30% acc · 55%

Distance

50% acc · 77%

75% acc · 9%

Clinch

91% acc · 16%

80% acc · 36%

Ground

71% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roxanne Modafferi rounds

even

Antonina Shevchenko rounds

Round 1Antonina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control1:59

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Roxanne Modafferi edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:46

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Antonina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:15

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 79

Sig Strikes

64 / 116

45.7%

Sig Str %

54.7%

105 / 162

Total Strikes

87 / 144

5 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:00

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonina Shevchenko	26 / 46	28 / 48	0 / 0
1	Roxanne Modafferi	11 / 40	30 / 63	2 / 2
2	Antonina Shevchenko	17 / 34	20 / 39	0 / 0
2	Roxanne Modafferi	14 / 21	44 / 56	1 / 2
3	Antonina Shevchenko	21 / 36	39 / 57	0 / 0
3	Roxanne Modafferi	8 / 18	31 / 43	2 / 2

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Antonina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8