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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Roxanne Modafferi won · U-DEC

Elo1418

Elo1477

Roxanne ModafferivsAndrea LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Saturday, September 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roxanne Modafferi won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Andrea Lee wins(77.4%)

Actual result: Roxanne Modafferi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrea Lee at -335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrea Lee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Andrea Lee has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Andrea Lee has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roxanne Modafferi

Red Corner

Andrea Lee

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-335

(77%)

1418

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roxanne ModafferiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Maycee Barber · Jan 20

vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20

vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21

vs Taila Santos · Sep 21

vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22

latest

Andrea LeeL5 streak

oldest →

vs Maycee Barber · Mar 23

vs Natalia Silva · Aug 23

vs Miranda Maverick · Feb 24

vs Montana De La Rosa · Jun 24

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roxanne ModafferiMetricAndrea Lee

3.35

Strikes / min

4.62

5.70

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

51%

Strike defense

61%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.65

30%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.35Δ 3.06 — meaningful gap+0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roxanne ModafferiAndrea Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)Andrea Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.2|Blue +59.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roxanne ModafferiTargetAndrea Lee

By target zone

35% acc · 93%

Head

39% acc · 52%

40% acc · 3%

Body

64% acc · 24%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

96% acc · 25%

By position

35% acc · 95%

Distance

50% acc · 92%

0% acc

Clinch

63% acc · 5%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roxanne Modafferi rounds

even

Andrea Lee rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:12

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 2Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:28

55Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control2:09

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 169

Sig Strikes

97 / 189

36.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

129 / 267

Total Strikes

118 / 210

4 / 7

TDs

3 / 4

61%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

4:49

Ctrl Time

1:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrea Lee	14 / 33	21 / 40	1 / 2
1	Roxanne Modafferi	12 / 27	54 / 80	1 / 2
2	Andrea Lee	55 / 94	62 / 101	2 / 2
2	Roxanne Modafferi	29 / 83	30 / 90	1 / 3
3	Andrea Lee	28 / 62	35 / 69	0 / 0
3	Roxanne Modafferi	19 / 59	45 / 97	2 / 2

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Andrea Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14