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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rousimar Palhares won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Rousimar Palhares
Elo1351

Rousimar PalharesvsTomasz DrwalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · Saturday, March 27, 2010Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Rousimar Palhares won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:45

Style matchupRousimar Palhares: WrestlervsTomasz Drwal: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tomasz Drwal wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Rousimar Palhares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tomasz Drwal at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rousimar Palhares threatens submissions; Tomasz Drwal has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Tomasz Drwal has 82pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Tomasz Drwal has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rousimar Palhares
Red Corner
VS
Tomasz Drwal
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1490
Elo
1351
46
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rousimar Palhares
oldest →
W
vs Dan Miller · Aug 11
W
SUBvs Mike Massenzio · Jan 12
L
KOvs Alan Belcher · May 12
L
KOvs Hector Lombard · Dec 12
W
SUBvs Mike Pierce · Oct 13
latest
Tomasz Drwal
oldest →
L
vs David Branch · Sep 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rousimar PalharesMetricTomasz Drwal
1.75
Strikes / min
3.29
2.04
Strikes absorbed / min
2.26
59%
Strike defense
57%
3.93
TDs / 15 min
3.55
0%
Takedown defense
82%
4.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.29Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes12.8 vs 28.8Takedowns2.8 vs 2.3Sub Atts1.75 vs 0.25Form0.0 vs 0.0
Rousimar PalharesTomasz Drwal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Rousimar Palhares(8 fights)Tomasz Drwal(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.5|Blue -139.5
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rousimar PalharesTargetTomasz Drwal

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rousimar Palhares rounds
1
even
0
Tomasz Drwal rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:07
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
0 / 2
0%
Sig Str %
0%
0 / 1
Total Strikes
0 / 2
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:07
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tomasz Drwal0 / 20 / 20 / 00
1Rousimar Palhares0 / 10 / 10 / 01

Rousimar Palhares

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8

Tomasz Drwal

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2