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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rousimar Palhares won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1356

Rousimar PalharesvsMike PierceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · Wednesday, October 9, 2013Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Rousimar Palhares won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:31

Style matchupRousimar Palhares: WrestlervsMike Pierce: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mike Pierce wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Rousimar Palhares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pierce at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pierce has 71pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rousimar Palhares

Red Corner

Mike Pierce

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1490

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rousimar PalharesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs David Branch · Mar 11

vs Dan Miller · Aug 11

SUBvs Mike Massenzio · Jan 12

KOvs Alan Belcher · May 12

KOvs Hector Lombard · Dec 12

latest

Mike Pierce

oldest →

vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha · Jun 12

KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12

vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12

KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rousimar PalharesMetricMike Pierce

1.75

Strikes / min

2.62

2.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

59%

Strike defense

62%

3.93

TDs / 15 min

3.08

Takedown defense

71%

4.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rousimar PalharesMike Pierce

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rousimar Palhares(8 fights)Mike Pierce(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.4|Blue -134.4

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +204.0|Blue -204.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rousimar PalharesTargetMike Pierce

By target zone

0% acc

Head

40% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rousimar Palhares rounds

even

Mike Pierce rounds

Round 1Mike Pierce edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:04

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

2 / 5

Sig Str %

40%

0 / 1

Total Strikes

2 / 5

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Pierce	2 / 5	2 / 5	1 / 1	0
1	Rousimar Palhares	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2

Rousimar Palhares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12