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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rousimar Palhares won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1351

Rousimar PalharesvsMike MassenzioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · Saturday, January 14, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Rousimar Palhares won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:03

Style matchupRousimar Palhares: WrestlervsMike Massenzio: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mike Massenzio wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Rousimar Palhares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Massenzio at +435 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rousimar Palhares threatens submissions; Mike Massenzio has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Mike Massenzio has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Massenzio (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rousimar Palhares

Red Corner

Mike Massenzio

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rousimar Palhares

oldest →

SUBvs David Branch · Mar 11

vs Dan Miller · Aug 11

KOvs Alan Belcher · May 12

KOvs Hector Lombard · Dec 12

SUBvs Mike Pierce · Oct 13

latest

Mike Massenzio

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Stann · Aug 10

vs Krzysztof Soszynski · Jun 11

vs Steve Cantwell · Oct 11

SUBvs Karlos Vemola · May 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rousimar PalharesMetricMike Massenzio

1.75

Strikes / min

2.08

2.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.59

59%

Strike defense

54%

3.93

TDs / 15 min

2.74

Takedown defense

50%

4.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-1.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rousimar PalharesMike Massenzio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rousimar Palhares(8 fights)Mike Massenzio(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.8|Blue -138.8

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rousimar PalharesTargetMike Massenzio

By target zone

0% acc

Head

0% acc

Body

80% acc · 100%

Leg

0% acc

By position

57% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rousimar Palhares rounds

even

Mike Massenzio rounds

Round 1Rousimar Palhares edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:01

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 8

Sig Strikes

0 / 6

50%

Sig Str %

4 / 8

Total Strikes

0 / 6

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Massenzio	0 / 6	0 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Rousimar Palhares	4 / 8	4 / 8	0 / 1	1

Rousimar Palhares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Mike Massenzio

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5