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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rousimar Palhares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1355

Rousimar PalharesvsDan MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · Saturday, August 27, 2011Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Rousimar Palhares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRousimar Palhares: WrestlervsDan Miller: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Dan Miller wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Rousimar Palhares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Miller at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rousimar Palhares has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dan Miller has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rousimar Palhares

Red Corner

Dan Miller

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rousimar Palhares

oldest →

SUBvs David Branch · Mar 11

SUBvs Mike Massenzio · Jan 12

KOvs Alan Belcher · May 12

KOvs Hector Lombard · Dec 12

SUBvs Mike Pierce · Oct 13

latest

Dan MillerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Doerksen · Dec 10

vs Nate Marquardt · Mar 11

SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12

KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13

vs Trevor Smith · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rousimar PalharesMetricDan Miller

1.75

Strikes / min

2.03

2.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

59%

Strike defense

49%

3.93

TDs / 15 min

1.67

Takedown defense

47%

4.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rousimar PalharesDan Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rousimar Palhares(8 fights)Dan Miller(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.3|Blue -135.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +16.0|Blue -16.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rousimar PalharesTargetDan Miller

By target zone

51% acc · 67%

Head

40% acc · 88%

88% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

59% acc · 69%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

59% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rousimar Palhares rounds

even

Dan Miller rounds

Round 1Rousimar Palhares edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:43

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Rousimar Palhares edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control4:38

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 111

Sig Strikes

42 / 97

64%

Sig Str %

41.3%

147 / 206

Total Strikes

48 / 104

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:21

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Miller	9 / 25	14 / 31	0 / 0
1	Rousimar Palhares	22 / 28	29 / 36	1 / 1
2	Dan Miller	3 / 7	4 / 8	0 / 0
2	Rousimar Palhares	16 / 25	89 / 112	1 / 1
3	Dan Miller	30 / 65	30 / 65	0 / 0
3	Rousimar Palhares	29 / 58	29 / 58	0 / 0

Rousimar Palhares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Dan Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8