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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Alan Belcher won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1352

Rousimar PalharesvsAlan BelcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Alan Belcher won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:18

Style matchupRousimar Palhares: WrestlervsAlan Belcher: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alan Belcher wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Alan Belcher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Belcher at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alan Belcher is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Rousimar Palhares has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Alan Belcher has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Alan Belcher has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rousimar Palhares

Red Corner

Alan Belcher

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rousimar Palhares

oldest →

SUBvs David Branch · Mar 11

vs Dan Miller · Aug 11

SUBvs Mike Massenzio · Jan 12

KOvs Hector Lombard · Dec 12

SUBvs Mike Pierce · Oct 13

latest

Alan BelcherL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Patrick Cote · May 10

KOvs Jason MacDonald · Sep 11

vs Yushin Okami · Dec 12

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rousimar PalharesMetricAlan Belcher

1.75

Strikes / min

2.70

2.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

59%

Strike defense

59%

3.93

TDs / 15 min

0.44

Takedown defense

55%

4.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rousimar PalharesAlan Belcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rousimar Palhares(8 fights)Alan Belcher(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.2|Blue -138.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rousimar PalharesTargetAlan Belcher

By target zone

0% acc

Head

53% acc · 95%

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

59% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rousimar Palhares rounds

even

Alan Belcher rounds

Round 1Alan Belcher edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control0:07

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

20 / 37

Sig Str %

54%

1 / 2

Total Strikes

29 / 46

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

2:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alan Belcher	20 / 37	29 / 46	0 / 0	1
1	Rousimar Palhares	0 / 1	1 / 2	1 / 1	1

Rousimar Palhares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Alan Belcher

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5