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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Stevie Ray won · S-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1492

Ross PearsonvsStevie RayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Stevie Ray won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsStevie Ray: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ross Pearson wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Stevie Ray wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ross Pearson at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ross Pearson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson

Red Corner

Stevie Ray

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1372

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross PearsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Stevie Ray

oldest →

KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18

vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18

KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19

vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricStevie Ray

3.68

Strikes / min

3.73

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

62%

Strike defense

54%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

0.75

75%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ross PearsonStevie Ray

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ross Pearson(10 fights)Stevie Ray(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -120.1|Blue +120.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetStevie Ray

By target zone

13% acc · 13%

Head

18% acc · 27%

58% acc · 68%

Body

67% acc · 29%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

88% acc · 45%

By position

40% acc · 95%

Distance

43% acc · 94%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

33% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ross Pearson rounds

even

Stevie Ray rounds

Round 1Stevie Ray edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:08

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Stevie Ray edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:50Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 92

Sig Strikes

49 / 117

43.3%

Sig Str %

42.3%

48 / 104

Total Strikes

50 / 119

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

3:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stevie Ray	13 / 30	13 / 30	1 / 1
1	Ross Pearson	11 / 19	17 / 26	0 / 0
2	Stevie Ray	20 / 38	21 / 40	0 / 2
2	Ross Pearson	12 / 31	15 / 35	0 / 0
3	Stevie Ray	16 / 49	16 / 49	0 / 0
3	Ross Pearson	15 / 42	16 / 43	0 / 0

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11