Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ross Pearson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1351

Ross PearsonvsSpencer FisherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · Saturday, February 26, 2011Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Ross Pearson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsSpencer Fisher: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ross Pearson wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Ross Pearson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ross Pearson at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ross Pearson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Spencer Fisher (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson

Red Corner

Spencer Fisher

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1372

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross PearsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Spencer FisherL2 streak

oldest →

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 10

vs Curt Warburton · Oct 10

KOvs Thiago Tavares · Aug 11

vs Sam Stout · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricSpencer Fisher

3.68

Strikes / min

3.17

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

62%

Strike defense

64%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

0.67

75%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ross PearsonSpencer Fisher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ross Pearson(10 fights)Spencer Fisher(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.3|Blue -20.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +31.0|Blue -31.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetSpencer Fisher

By target zone

24% acc · 64%

Head

16% acc · 55%

43% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 11%

65% acc · 19%

Leg

87% acc · 34%

By position

28% acc · 85%

Distance

23% acc · 87%

67% acc · 14%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

17% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ross Pearson rounds

even

Spencer Fisher rounds

Round 1Spencer Fisher edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:05

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Ross Pearson edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:24

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Ross Pearson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns3

Control1:27

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 198

Sig Strikes

38 / 151

29%

Sig Str %

25.3%

69 / 210

Total Strikes

43 / 156

3 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:56

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Spencer Fisher	19 / 45	20 / 46	1 / 1
1	Ross Pearson	15 / 57	15 / 57	0 / 1
2	Spencer Fisher	13 / 61	14 / 62	0 / 0
2	Ross Pearson	26 / 74	29 / 77	0 / 1
3	Spencer Fisher	6 / 45	9 / 48	0 / 0
3	Ross Pearson	18 / 67	25 / 76	3 / 4

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23

Spencer Fisher

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5